Thursday, July 1, 2010


Jigging is a form of fishing where the lure is moved up and down in the water until the fish strikes.

Looks like that is exactly what is happening in our RE market. A little movement up and a little down, until a buyer gives up and strikes...

We were down on detached in May but up in apartments. Now we have a reversal, down in apartments and up in detached.

These are average prices, and are from Larry Yatter...much kudos to him again for being the first out with these.

A little up and a little down - jigging. BTW- I will say it again, as I have said before, I cannot see how the B of C can raise rates. With a shaking hand and sweaty armpits they raised it 0.25% and now we have enough weakening to make them regret even that.

What we bears will need to depend on is (in no particular order):

1) Weakening economic out-look making housing even more unaffordable despite these low rates.
2) A change in investor sentiment. Two months of drops would have done it. And maybe bench-mark and median will support this. However we may have to wait another month. Even head-lines of economic weakness may bring caution.
3) A reduction in off-shore demand. Lets watch this as an indicator:

4) A retrenchment in Government spending. Harper is already talking about pulling out of deficit and you can expect Provincial cut-backs to continue too.

1 and 4 are double edge swords. Who wants RE to drop because our neighbours are losing their jobs? It would have been better to raise rates, nip the monster early and then drop rates again with the next weakness (which may be starting already)

But it was not to be. We can blame the politicians, but we want everything and they give it to us.