Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Numbers are out


Lots of stats for the numbers nerds to play around with.

HPI down 2.8% from peak. (Hey the peak is behind us)

Sales down almost 50% from 2009- we already knew that.

MOI for JULY was 7.2

Some HPI comparisons Between June 2010 and July 2010.

Detached July: $793,193 June: $795,025
Condo: July: $387,879 June: $391,528
Attached: July $490,995
June: $492,861.


The importance of timing in the housing market is demonstrated in the line below:

Residential Greater Vancouver $577,074

1 year change = 9.1% 3 YEAR CHANGE =9.1% 5 Year change = 46.0%

Buying a year ago gave you as much appreciation as buying three years ago. that's what a steep drop does for you.

And several areas like West Vancouver which saw nutty pricing a few years ago are still down in price from 3 years ago (with lots of price recent price reductions to still factor in)

We are down anything from 3-6% from the peak a few months ago depending on whether you follow average or HPI.

Neither are ground breaking. However a few points here:

1) It shows that hosuing falls , DESPITE all the pundits and experts.

2) This is exactly what we want...a slow decline.We want a market which allows buyers and sellers to transact based on supply and demand.

NOT for the Government to change the rules and pull the carpet from under the buyers, as soon as they have an upper hand (after years of being in the loser camp).

That is EXACTLY what they did in 2008.

If we had a falling-off-the-cliff event in housing - you can bet that Flaherty and Campbell and their gnomes would be hard at work trying to throw our money at sellers.