Saturday, September 4, 2010

More bear fodder...

The Sunshine Coast has been weak for the last two years and prices have gone nowhere.

Here are the numbers and charts.

Detached prices are actually DOWN 9% over the last 3 years and UP 15.9% for the last five years - which is probably no more than inflation.

Fraser Valley is now sitting at 10 MOI too. The areas outside of Vancouver like the FVREB, Okanagan, Sunshine Coast and Vancouver Island, struggled to recover from the 2008 crash. They are now showing increasing weakness. If we think the price/income ratio is out of whack for Vancouver- then it was really out of whack for many of these areas.

Incomes are lower, they don't have the benefit of wealthy migrants (except for the OK and Albertans and retirees coming from the East)- so they were more vulnerable, where-as it is very possible that Vancouver will be buoyed by higher income and the influx of money for longer.

Of course any weakening in Vancouver will damage the periphery even more-since many used their new found RE wealth to borrow against and buy a second home/ cottage/condo (just like the US!) or sold and moved and put a nice chunk in the bank.