Saturday, October 1, 2011


MUCHO kudos to Larry again for being out with the numbers so fast.

That's a 5% drop in the average price from last month and a 10% drop in the SFH average from the high-water mark in May of this year.

Guess I got it right this time. I did say that May was going to be the high point or I was heading out of here and then I said 12 days ago that I thought we would have a significant drop in September.

Hey, I have to blow my own trumpet a little, being a RE bear has not been easy, seeing your well thought out arguments steam-rollered by abrupt changes in policy, lax lending or off-shore money.

I said the September numbers would be crucial. With more inventory coming onto the market rather than leaving, with the trajectory of the stock market being down rather than up and with China wobbling economically, we had very different dynamics from last year.

Average condo prices are down 6% from the high-water mark. After the huge run up of recent years, these numbers do not sound too dramatic, but they are a good start and remember statistics dictates that the same % move down shaves off more $$ than the same % move up added.

Just to give you some perspective, in October 2010 the SFH Average price from Larry's stats was $1,058,000. SO we need to lose another $ 46K to go negative YOY.

Fingers tightly crossed. We CAN do it.

Enjoy the weekend