Monday, January 30, 2012

We are 48 hours +/- away from January's Average numbers

What do I expect?

A smaller drop than December in the SFH, because we have had a couple of huge sales which will skew things, perhaps a larger drop in condos and attached is always a crap shoot.

We MAY then get a small bounce in Feb. depending on how many HAM buyers have shown up and bid up the high end of the market, since most of their New Year's buys will show up in early-mid Feb.

If they don't show up then we may just see more of the same or a flat market.

March will be the big tell. If buyers don't show up, then the MOI will quickly balloon and as Jesse has shown in his graphs, MOI correlates well with prices.

We have already seen MOI expansion and price drops outside of Vancouver....The Sunshine Coast, Victoria and the Okanagan. Now we have it in Fraser valley, with Surrey sporting some high numbers. We may be in for a bit of a shocker soon if Richmond and the Westside sales don't pick up.