Saturday, February 11, 2012

Not much to say...

We have some softness but not a crash. Inventory is building up nicely.

HAM has shown up with selective buys in West Van. The New Year buying spree has failed to materialize yet. However prices are so high and out of synch with earnings that we will need a lot more than that to get a good correction going.

In fact we would be best served by a slow correction rather than a crash. Remember the Feds have been talking tough and that could mean decreasing the amortization period increasing down-payments for CMHC insured mortgages and Not increasing the CMHC cap. Basically reversing their own foolish policies which have helped feed the frenzy.

If we have a significant slow down, then they won't do any of these, and in fact based on previous experience will probably react by jumping into the market and intervening.

After Stephen Harper's visit to China, there is zero chance of Federal tightening up of Chinese off-shore ownership of Canadian assets, however the possibility of an extradition treaty would help flush out some of the really crooked money, as have the recent deportations of a couple of embezzlers back to China to face the music.

Of course the City could come up with rules on off-shore owners and leaving property empty. The CRA could make sure that the 25% is deducted from rents and submitted to the CRA by harassing 'Agents' who are ultimately responsible if it is not deducted. However both these would quickly run up against the strong housing lobby.

That's it for now. Steady to down until March would be good to give the Feds balls to act and then a slow summer and a very soft fall, that would be the best scenario for the bears.

A 5% YOY drop by September would be very nice. 5% which was obvious to all regardless of the manipulation of the stats. With 5% under our belts and new regulations we could see a change in psychology and a more rapid correction.

Surrey - SFH . The three areas I follow 1743 listings and 187 sales over the last 30 days.

Have a great week-end.