Monday, April 30, 2012

Midway into the Spring Market

And the numbers will be telling. Has the sales slump affected prices or are the big purchases propping up them up?

Will the weakness from the periphery move inwards. We have already seen from Larry's numbers that in Coquitlam higher inventory and lower sales are cracking prices.

It was the OK, then it was the Sunshine Coast, Whistler and Victoria...then the Fraser Valley and now we are into the GVREB area.

The best we (bears) could hope for is a small steady decline in prices and activity. What we DO NOT want is a sudden drop. We had that in 2008/2009 and the Captain Flaherty and Bosun Carney swung the ship right round to prevent any correction.

Well these two jolly fools are still at the helm, and any sign of signficant weakness and you can be suure the pressure from the RE lobby and their own fear of what may come will make them change course again. They will drag the CMHC out again and put an even more pro-RE board in, increase the cap, throw out tax-credits like life vests and try and keep the bloated ship afloat.

Better a small leak which they think is the result of their jaw-boning rather than the result of lack of affordability and the tendency of bubble to burst if left alone.

A small drop would make me a happy fish.