Thursday, June 21, 2012

Is a perfect storm brewing?

We have the new mortgage rules briefly outlined here. Gotta give some kudos to Flaherty for finally doing something significant about the bubble. The CMHC insurance being limited to homes less than $1 Million is one of those..duh, isn't that obvious, moments.

Isn't the CMHC supposed to help Canadians buy homes? How on earth can it fulfil that mandate by helping squeeze people into multimillion dollar homes? Or help them buy investment properties? All the while having us insure this folly!

Slowly people are coming to their senses (driven by comments from the IMF, Bloomberg and Nomura not to mention our local commentators) and this huge enabler of excess debt and risk is being defanged.

The question is, is it too late? Has the bubble got so big that the collateral damage from it's bursting will be painful for everyone.

Throw in a slow-down in China and significant weakness in commodities and we could have some significant downward pressure on RE.

Bank of Canada Rates will stay low for another year or two, that seems certain. However I would not be shocked, in 6 months or so, to see an event push long rates quite a bit higher and that could deliver the final coup de grace.