Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Is it time to start sniffing around?

I see some comments wondering about whether it could be time to start looking for 'deals'

There is no doubt that there are deals surfacing. Look at Vancouver Price Drop to get some idea about where things are going. Of course there are good deals in the Sunshine Coast, OK and Whistler.

But what about Vancouver? Have we just started the correction or are we just having another dip, followed by a plateau and then up we go again.

Well it may help us to see just how high we went. Here's Larry's Average Price chart:

A technical analyst might say that there is good support at the $1 million level.  What then? Up from there or down further?

It all depends whether we start getting a negative loop. Lower prices and less sales leading to less construction, mortgage and Realtor employment  (10% of employment) leading to a drop in personal net worth and less spending on retail (another 7-8%) 

So you can see how quickly a drop can reinforce itself with negative feed-back. Any further weakness in commodities and it will multiplied.

San Diego which we are often compared to, took a while to roll over, but when it did it went south fast.

So before we dive into the market, we may want to see if this is the beginning of a bigger correction. Looking, however is good.