Thursday, June 20, 2013

The Perfect Storm

A "perfect storm" is an expression that describes an event where a rare combination of circumstances will aggravate a situation drastically. The term is also used to describe an actual phenomenon that happens to occur in such a confluence, resulting in an event of unusual magnitude.

China growth has slowed and may dip under 7%. Liquidity is tightening and over-night interbank lending rates have soared.

Canadian Interest rates have soared

The CMHC has been reined in from the catastrophic organization it was. The board of directors will hopefully be replaced soon and this Government lunacy will end.

8500 more people left BC in 2012 than came in, many no doubt driven out by high housing costs and and growth forecasts are dropping.

Commodities are in a slump. Wood and paper make up 30% of all our exports, at 10 Billion dollars. 

Gold has been crashing and many junior miners are near shuttering their offices and laying off their staff. The rest of mining sector is faring better but will need a rebound in copper, coal, oil and Ngas soon. Even agricultural commodities needed to feed the world's burgeoning population has dropped, which shows us how much 'fast money' there was in these from low interest rates.

BTW we spent $16 Billion on healthcare. Ie 1.5 times our largest export. Unsustainable and likely to get worse. A commodity slump will make the Province's debt problem much worse, which means pretty soon the Province will be forced to make cuts or lose it's credit worthiness.

Higher rates, lack of affordability, tepid jobs market, China under pressure, commodities in a major downturn, Provincial Government with fiscal restraints, major build-outs ended, lower growth forecasts, an aging population which is consuming a lot of dollars but not paying very much in, the CMHC being held back from it's own stupidity, the Federal Government in a different mood from 2008 and more people leaving than coming in....and yet there are people still buying!!

Some people are even paying over assessed they are so desperate to buy.

If this perfect storm does NOT lead to a major drop, then I need to rethink my economic ideas.